SANCTIONS AGAINST THE LUKASHENKO REGIME: A FAILED STRATEGY

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As Northern Ireland’s national soccer team prepares for the second game against the sanctioned Belarusian team on neutral territory, the question of the viability and success of sanctions looms large.

The inter­na­tion­al com­mu­ni­ty has long used sanc­tions as a tool to pres­sure author­i­tar­i­an regimes into com­pli­ance with demo­c­ra­t­ic norms and human rights stan­dards. In Belarus, how­ev­er, the sanc­tions imposed on the Lukashenko regime fol­low­ing the con­tro­ver­sial 2020 elec­tions have not weak­ened the gov­ern­ment. Instead, they have allowed it to adapt and thrive. This arti­cle exam­ines the dynam­ics of these sanc­tions, high­light­ing how the regime con­tin­ues to enrich itself while ordi­nary peo­ple suf­fer, and get thrown in jail on polit­i­cal­ly moti­vat­ed charges by the thou­sands.

 

A Regime Resilient to Sanc­tions

Since the Euro­pean Union, the Unit­ed States, and oth­er coun­tries imposed sanc­tions on Belarus, over 200 indi­vid­u­als and enti­ties have been tar­get­ed. These include high-rank­ing offi­cials, mem­bers of the secu­ri­ty forces, and var­i­ous state-owned enter­pris­es. Notable exam­ples of sanc­tioned enter­pris­es include Belaruskali, one of the world’s largest pro­duc­ers of potash, and Naf­tan, a major oil refin­ery. Both com­pa­nies have found ways to cir­cum­vent the sanc­tions by piv­ot­ing their trade toward Rus­sia and oth­er author­i­tar­i­an-friend­ly mar­kets such as Chi­na and Iran.

State enter­pris­es like Grod­no Azot, a chem­i­cal and fer­til­iz­er pro­duc­er, and MAZ (Min­sk Auto­mo­bile Plant), a lead­ing man­u­fac­tur­er of heavy vehi­cles, con­tin­ue to gen­er­ate rev­enue. Their pro­duc­tion is no longer des­tined for West­ern mar­kets but is now fun­neled through new trade routes, fuel­ing the regime’s finances. Lukashenko has also per­son­al­ly ben­e­fit­ed from this sys­tem, with his inner cir­cle grow­ing wealth­i­er, even as the gen­er­al pop­u­la­tion suf­fers.

 

The Suf­fer­ing of Ordi­nary Peo­ple

While the regime thrives, ordi­nary Belaru­sians bear the brunt of the eco­nom­ic fall­out. Reports indi­cate that many cit­i­zens face long hours in line at the bor­der with the Euro­pean Union. Humil­i­at­ing search­es for cig­a­rettes or snacks have become com­mon, as cus­toms offi­cials impose strict reg­u­la­tions. The dis­par­i­ty between the elite’s wealth and the strug­gles of every­day cit­i­zens is stark, with many fam­i­lies unable to afford neces­si­ties.

More alarm­ing­ly, thou­sands of Belaru­sians are fac­ing polit­i­cal tri­als and impris­on­ment on polit­i­cal grounds. Polit­i­cal pris­on­ers are held incom­mu­ni­ca­do, cut off from the out­side world, while new arrests hap­pen dai­ly across the coun­try. Per­se­cu­tion and repres­sion remain a con­stant under Lukashenko’s regime, and no one is exempt — not even ath­letes.

 

Impact on Sports and the Next Gen­er­a­tion

Sanc­tions have also extend­ed to the sports sec­tor, impact­ing not just the elite but also grass­roots ath­letes. Young ath­letes, eager to com­pete, are now barred from par­tic­i­pat­ing in events across Europe and oth­er civ­i­lized nations. This exclu­sion is push­ing them toward Rus­sia, where they are wel­comed with open arms. Pro­pa­gan­da from the Russ­ian regime effec­tive­ly frames this tran­si­tion as a sup­port­ive move, fos­ter­ing a sense of belong­ing among these young com­peti­tors.

As these ath­letes grow, there is a risk that they will turn away from the Euro­pean Union and the Unit­ed States, blam­ing them for their iso­la­tion. This nar­ra­tive, fueled by the regime’s pro­pa­gan­da, threat­ens to shape the atti­tudes of a new gen­er­a­tion in Belarus, fos­ter­ing a sense of resent­ment toward the West.

 

Con­clu­sion

Sanc­tions have failed to achieve their intend­ed goals in Belarus, as they have in many oth­er author­i­tar­i­an regimes. His­to­ry shows no clear proof that sanc­tions lead to mean­ing­ful polit­i­cal change. The Aya­tol­lahs in Iran, Kim Jong Un in North Korea, and Vladimir Putin in Rus­sia have all found ways to sur­vive and thrive under sanc­tions, often turn­ing the blame on for­eign ene­mies while ordi­nary peo­ple are left to suf­fer.

In Belarus, while the sta­bil­i­ty of the coun­try remains vague, one thing is clear: the Lukashenko clan is get­ting rich­er. The media, whether inad­ver­tent­ly or by fol­low­ing Russ­ian pro­pa­gan­da, have turned a free­dom-lov­ing nation into a mon­ster in the eyes of the world. But the peo­ple of Belarus live under dou­ble occupation—Lukashenko’s regime and Russia’s influ­ence. The last thing they want is war with Ukraine, yet it is they who suf­fer under the weight of sanc­tions.

Addi­tion­al­ly, thou­sands of Belaru­sians are endur­ing per­se­cu­tion, impris­on­ment, and dai­ly repres­sion on polit­i­cal grounds. These polit­i­cal pris­on­ers, includ­ing ath­letes, live in incom­mu­ni­ca­do mode, sep­a­rat­ed from the world, while new arrests are a dai­ly occur­rence. It is cru­cial that Euro­pean and Amer­i­can media stop blam­ing Belaru­sian ath­letes and cit­i­zens for the polit­i­cal strug­gles they have no con­trol over. Instead, the focus should be on fight­ing for their rights, ensur­ing that they are not pun­ished for a war they are not wag­ing.